In March, the bounce rate in value terms stood at 22.8%, which was better than the pre-Covid range of 24.5%-25.0%, which was reflected in all during FY22. Similarly, the bounce rate in terms of volume also increased sequentially to 29.6%, which is better than the pre-Covid average of 30.5-31.5%.
Some banks reporting March-quarter earnings have shown mounting pressure on the retail book.
Kunal Shah, Senior Vice President, ICICI Securities said, “As per the market feedback, the asset quality crisis has eased and the focus is now on growth.” “Moreover, given that geopolitical uncertainties are not disruptive, slippage and credit costs are likely to escalate further. However, given the marginal growth in March 2022 and a gradual increase in retail NPAs at one of the major banks, which have As of now having reported earnings, we will keep an eye on deterioration in asset quality.”
For ICICI Bank, fresh slippages or new bad loans were slightly higher than expected with retail and commercial banking loans contributing 89% of the total ₹4,200 crore gross slippage. Most of the banks have reported improvement in collection efficiency ratio, higher upgradation and recovery and eased any stress that could possibly arise from the COVID Emergency Guarantee Scheme. Banks’ restructured assets have also seen a decline.
As per rating agency ICRA, in terms of asset quality, Gross Non-Performing Assets is expected to decline to 5.6-5.7% by March 2023, as against an estimated 6.2-6.3% by March 2022 while Net NPAs will decline to 1.7-7% by March 2022. 1.8% as against an estimate of 2.0% by March 2022. Despite the asset quality outlook looking better, pressure from some sectors remains. “For the sector, challenges arise from the performance of the restructured loan book, which creates uncertainty for asset quality as these loans exit the moratorium,” said Anil Gupta, vice-president, ICRA.