Wakefield said they have developed a model for countries with no data, and a separate model for countries with subnational data, and India falls in the second category.
“The Indian government was criticized earlier for the model, which we did not use for India,” he said in an exclusive interview. “India has been repeatedly informed of this.”
“India’s statements on the model were incorrect, including those in the recent government response,” said Wakefield, who is a professor of biostatistics at Washington State University.
According to WHO estimates released last week, Covid-19 could kill around 4.74 million people in India in 2020 and 2021, either directly due to the infection or its indirect effects. The figure – which has been disputed by India – is nearly ten times the country’s official Covid death toll at 481,000 at the end of 2021.
“My only request is to all countries to disseminate accurate and timely mortality data at the earliest, so that they can list the death toll from this terrible pandemic,” Wakefield said.
Wakefield said he did not calculate the state-wise death toll for India and only the total was counted. Work is ongoing, as Wakefield said they will continue to develop the model and update the estimates at some point in the future.
State health ministers in India have termed the WHO’s estimate as “baseless” and that it is “intended to show the country in a bad light”.
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